Gary Leitzell on track to upset Rhine McLin in Dayton mayoral race

On an issue of local importance to the Miami Valley, independent challenger Gary Leitzell has pulled ahead of Democratic incumbent Rhine McLin in the race for mayor of Dayton, OH. Leitzell leads McLin by 4 points with 94% of precincts reporting in. I’m making an executive decision and making a call (purely as an amateur) for a Leitzell victory.

McLin seems like a nice enough person, but after two terms as mayor that has seen hemorrhaging jobs and budget shortfalls, the city has little to show for her efforts. It was time for a change, and here’s hoping that Leitzell can do a better job (should he end up winning, of course).

I wonder, though, if McLin does lose, will she follow the path of her predecessor Mike Turner and run for Congress? That might be an interesting matchup, one that McLin won in a contest that sent Turner out of the mayor’s office and to Washington, D.C. Turner, though, now has a pretty good track record on the national level, and the district is larger than just Dayton. It’s some food for thought.

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Earthquake: Christie wins in NJ

Of the three heavily watched national races, the governor’s race in New Jersey was the one that most on both sides looked toward most closely as a bellwether for the national mood and the fortunes of both political parties. In an upset that is sure to send shock waves to Washington, D.C., Republican candidate Chris Christie won against incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in a deep blue state that went heavily for Obama just one year ago.

This was to be an extremely close contest, but the AP and NBC called the race with 20% of precincts not yet reporting. There was a lot of dissatisfaction with Corzine in New Jersey, but this win is an upset and an eye-opener no matter how you look at it.

Extrapolating this win forward to 2010 is a dicier proposal. Trying to say that New Jersey is now a red state would be an absolutely laughable assertion – Democratic influence will continue to remain strong there. It’s also absolutely correct to say that in an off-year, you have lower turnout, especially among the demographics that turned out heavily for Obama last year. In addition, it’s also fair to say that these races hinge on local and state matters that may have no bearing on national elections.

On the other hand, it’s foolish to look at the wins in Virginia and New Jersey in a complete vacuum. Voters in those states, like the rest of the country, are unhappy for a reason, and Congress and the administration play a role in that national dissatisfaction, however large or small you want to make that role.

But particularly in New Jersey, the President spent a lot of time campaigning for the Democratic candidates. Obama made five trips to the Garden State and sent his campaign team to manage Corzine’s effort there. A loss for Corzine is obviously a reflection on his failed governorship, but it also points to Obama’s declining influence in even the bluest of states to turn the tide with a massive amount of energy on his part.

I was hopeful about this race, but I’m still shocked that Christie was able to pull it off. So far we have an impressive duo of wins for the GOP tonight.

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McDonnell wins big in Virginia

In a race where the only uncertainty was the margin of victory, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell annihilated Democrat Creigh Deeds by a margin of 18 points. Going into Election Day, the margin in the polls had been widening, leaving this race in little doubt. Republicans won the other two statewide positions of Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General easily as well.

And yet, such a large margin of victory is quite surprising in a state that just a year ago went for Barack Obama fairly handily. A consistent message being pushed by pollsters and pundits tonight is that these elections aren’t a reflection on Obama and that the President himself isn’t a factor. That’s certainly true to a degree, as the races boil down to two candidates and issues that matter to a state electorate, not a national one.

Still, the addition of Virginia to the Democratic column was a major feather in the cap in 2008, and such a dramatic swing the other way for statewide offices doesn’t happen in a vacuum. In any event, it’s an impressive win for McDonnell and Republicans in Virginia.

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